A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
